Case Problem: Capital State University Game-Day Magazines
Page 783 (use data file magazinesCSU.xlsx attached below)
Use the concepts you have learned from Chapters 2, 3, 7, and 11 to write a study document that will help Kris analyze football magazine sales in Years 1 through 9 to determine an order amount for Year 10.
Address items 1-3 and explain in detail how you developed your solution and why you think your analysis is accurate using the concepts and tools you learned throughout this course:
- There is a considerable amount of data available in the file Magazines CSU, but not all of it may be useful for your purposes here. Are there variables contained in the file Magazines CSU that you would exclude from a forecast model to determine football magazine sales in Year 10? If so, why? Are there particular observations of football magazine sales from previous years that you would exclude from your forecasting model? If so, why?
- Based on the data in the file Magazines CSU, develop a regression model to forecast the average sales of football magazines for each of the seven home games in the upcoming season (Year 10). That is, you should construct a single regression model and use it to estimate the average demand for the seven home games in Year 10. In addition to the variables provided, you may create new variables based on these variables or based on observations of your analysis. Be sure to provide a thorough analysis of your final model (residual diagnostics) and provide assessments of its accuracy. What insights are available based on your regression model?
- Use the forecasting model developed in Part 2 to create a simulation model that Kris can use to estimate the total football magazine sales amounts in Year 10. Your simulation model should have seven uncertain inputs: one input for football magazine sales at each CSU game in Year 10. Then you should sum these sales amounts for each individual game to create a total football magazine sales amount for Year 10.
Submit a .doc/.pdf for the final report and attach the .xlsx file you used for developing the model/simulation.